Rain or Shine? A global prognosis for entrepreneurial activity
Nov 15, 2012
Arlington, VA: The world today is operating at 25 percent of its entrepreneurial capacity according to the Global Entrepreneurship Barometer (GEBAR). This means the world’s entrepreneurial weather is changing: moving from rainy to fairer weather. ‘Overall, it’s a positive development yet if bottlenecks are addressed, we can raise it to 45% by 2052' adds Professor Zoltan Acs, Director of the Center for Entrepreneurship and Public Policy (CEPP) and head of the GEBAR research team at George Mason University in Virginia, USA.
GEBAR provides an annual weather forecast for productive entrepreneurship. In other words, it tells us where the world is in terms of fostering entrepreneurs that are innovative, create jobs, are market expanding, export oriented and lead to economic growth. ‘25% is actually a pretty big number’ Acs comments, since ‘in the past, the entrepreneurial weather was more overcast and rainy’. For the GEBAR, rainy, stormy weather indicates higher levels of unproductive entrepreneurship such as rent seeking and contraband activities which interfere with and undermine national economic growth and prosperity. Even worse, in weak and corrupt institutional environments where unproductive entrepreneurship flourishes, productive entrepreneurs will not even attempt to start a business. The unleashing of entrepreneurship potential in formerly closed economies such as in China and Russia as well as in large developing countries such as Brazil and India has strongly impact this new positive trend.
What can we expect in the future? Like a barometer, the current GEBAR provides a good indication for future developments. The weather seems to be improving and initiatives like Global Entrepreneurship Week are important facilitators for creating the conditions for ‘sunny weather’ ahead. Next year’s GEBAR 2013 will show us if this trend continues.
The GEBAR is calculated using data from over 130 countries and includes more than 90 percent of the world’s population. The GEBAR team is led by Professor Zoltan J. Acs, Director of the Center for Entrepreneurship and Public Policy at George Mason University and includes economists, statisticians, as well as management and development experts at leading universities across the globe. The team works closely with leading research centers and international agencies to help policy makers build vibrant communities.
The George Mason School of Public Policy’s Center for Entrepreneurship and Public Policy (CEPP) focuses on the relationship between Entrepreneurship Development and Comparative Public Policy in a global context. At CEPP, we use the Global Entrepreneurship Barometer (GEBAR) and the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index (GEDI) as tools for analyzing the impediments to productive entrepreneurial development and economic prosperity through tailor-made, country-specific reports, presentations, regional analysis and consultancies.